The National Centre of Meteorology mentions how there is 98% probability that El Niño conditions will prevail in the UAE. This is expected to prevail between July and November 2026, which would result in the temperatures and rainfall being near the above seasonal averages. Here’s what the NCM says regarding the conditions that may dominate the UAE climate in the four mentioned periods.
What Does NCM Predicts For El Niño?
As revealed in a report of the Gulf News, the latest seasonal forecast reveals how the Niño 3.4 C surface temperature anomaly, which stood out at 0.5°C. This places the conditions within Niño categories. So the department noted how the Niño 3.4 region of the tropical Pacific happens to be a climate indicator, which is influenced by the patterns that affect the UAE.
It Could Affect Temperatures From July To November
So, on the basis of this study, it has been predicted that from July to November, the temperature and precipitation across the UAE can range from near average to above average. These are a result of the anticipated El Niño conditions. The centre has also mentioned how the status of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation is also being monitored. Not to mention, it is being updated on a monthly basis with the help of international climate observation and forecasting models.
Also Read: With 1,560 Residential Units, BEYOND Developments Launches ‘The Yards’ Project In Dubai
El Niño To Return In June 2026
The development comes just a few days after the UN warned of potentially historic climate event. As revealed by the climate scientists, a potentially powerful El Niño is forming in the Pacific Ocean. The World Meteorological Organisation has confirmed that the El Niño will return in early June 2026.
But what is El Niño? It is a naturally occurring climate pattern that is caused by unusually warm waters in central and eastern Pacific Ocean. Super El Niño, on the other hand, is an informal term which describes an exceptionally strong effect.
With the heat already building in the Pacific Ocean, experts are concerned. Sea surface temperature is running about 6°C above average, and this raises fears that the event can strengthen into a rare Super El Niño.
Cover Image Courtesy: Canva Pro/PraewBlackWhile from Getty Images Pro (Cover image is for representative purposes only)
For more such snackable content, interesting discoveries and the latest updates on food, travel and experiences in your city, download the Curly Tales App. Download HERE. First Published: June 09, 2026 2:22 PMFAQs
What is El Niño?
El Niño is a climatic pattern, which is caused by unusually warm waters in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean.
What does El Niño trigger?
El Niño often triggers droughts in parts of Asia and Australia. And causes heavy rainfall in parts of the Americas, leading to crop failure, wildfire, floods, and marine heat waves.